Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
